Inside Kalshi's half-baked plan to turn inflation forecasts into gambling markets

Prediction markets platform Kalshi is trying to dress up gambling as serious economic analysis. And not only is this ludicrously misleading, it’s also plain dangerous. The company is pushing an inflation prediction market that lets users gamble on monthly CPI data , and they’re claiming their platform is better than Wall Street at forecasting inflation. The same Wall Street that has been doing this for well over two centuries. But then you also read Kalshi’s so-called research report on the matter and realize they haven’t shown their study anywhere at all. So no one knows what “Wall Street consensus” they beat or how exactly they’re pulling forecasts from betting slips. This is ECONS 101. Kalshi turns CPI data into a betting board To quote my professor at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Jonathan Gruber, “If you want people to take you seriously as an economist, you show your work, as...

https://www.cryptopolitan.com/kalshi-inflation-predictions-its-worst-idea/